Can American Board of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation Part 2 board examination scores be predicted from rotation evaluations or mock oral examinations?

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine whether either Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation residency performance on core competency evaluations or on practice mock oral examinations is correlated to performance on future American Board of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation Part 2 board-certifying examination. DESIGN: This is a retrospective cohort study of residents who took part 2 of the American Board of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation certification examination between 1995 and 2011 (N = 31 or 38 or 67). RESULTS: The postgraduate year 4 mock oral examination average achieved significance in correlation analysis (Spearman rho, 0.0391; P = 0.030). Patient care and a composite average of the other core competencies evaluations were also significantly correlated with performance on part 2 of the board-certifying examination (Spearman rho, 0.329; P = 0.044). The only independent variable that was uniquely predictive was postgraduate year 4 mock oral examinations (chi = 7.09; P = 0.029). More specifically, when controlling for rotation performances, residents with higher mock oral examination scores were 9.6 times (Exp B = 9.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-80; P = 0.036) more likely than those one grade lower to achieve the upper half on oral board examinations vs. either of the lower 2 quartiles. CONCLUSIONS: The postgraduate year 4 mock oral examinations and the core competency evaluations composite are each predictive of performance on American Board of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation part 2 examination. Further research into this area, with a larger sample size and with multiple institutions, would be helpful to allow for a better measurement of these evaluation tools' effectiveness.